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Thursday, September 20, 2012

The Secret History of the American Empire: The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World

A riveting exposé of international corruption—and what we can do about it, from the author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, which spent over a year on the New York Times bestseller list.

In his stunning memoir, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, John Perkins detailed his former role as an "economic hit man" in the international corporate skullduggery of a de facto American Empire. This riveting, behind-the-scenes exposé unfolded like a cinematic blockbuster told through the eyes of a man who once helped shape that empire. Now, in The Secret History of the American Empire, Perkins zeroes in on hot spots around the world and, drawing on interviews with other hit men, jackals, reporters, and activists, examines the current geopolitical crisis. Instability is the norm: It’s clear that the world we’ve created is dangerous and no longer sustainable. How did we get here? Who’s responsible? What good have we done and at what cost? And what can we do to change things for the next generations? Addressing these questions and more, Perkins reveals the secret history behind the events that have created the American Empire, including:

• The current Latin-American revolution and its lessons for democracy
• How the "defeats" in Vietnam and Iraq benefited big business
• The role of Israel as "Fortress America" in the Middle East
• Tragic repercussions of the IMF’s "Asian Economic Collapse"
• U.S. blunders in Tibet, Congo, Lebanon, and Venezuela
• Jackal (CIA operatives) forays to assassinate democratic presidents

From the U.S. military in Iraq to infrastructure development in Indonesia, from Peace Corps volunteers in Africa to jackals in Venezuela, Perkins exposes a conspiracy of corruption that has fueled instability and anti-Americanism around the globe. Alarming yet hopeful, this book provides a compassionate plan to reimagine our world.

Author Biography :  John Perkins website is www.johnperkins.org. His TWITTERID is economic_hitman. John Perkins has lived four lives: as an economic hit man (EHM); as the CEO of a successful alternative energy company, who was rewarded for not disclosing his EHM past; as an expert on indigenous cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to promote ecology and sustainability while continuing to honor his vow of silence about his life as an EHM; and as a writer who, in telling the real-life story about his extraordinary dealings as an EHM, has exposed the world of international intrigue and corruption that is turning the American republic into a global empire despised by increasing numbers of people around the planet.  

Hoodwinked: An Economic Hit Man Reveals Why the World Financial Markets Imploded

John Perkins has seen the signs of today's economic meltdown before. The subprime mortgage fiascos, the banking industry collapse, the rising tide of unemployment, the shuttering of small businesses across the landscape are all too familiar symptoms of a far greater disease. In his former life as an economic hit man, he was on the front lines both as an observer and a perpetrator of events, once confined only to the third world, that have now sent the United States—and in fact the entire planet—spiraling toward disaster.

Here, Perkins pulls back the curtain on the real cause of the current global financial meltdown. He shows how we've been hoodwinked by the CEOs who run the corporatocracy—those few corporations that control the vast amounts of capital, land, and resources around the globe—and the politicians they manipulate. These corporate fat cats, Perkins explains, have sold us all on what he calls predatory capitalism, a misguided form of geopolitics and capitalism that encourages a widespread exploitation of the many to benefit a small number of the already very wealthy. Their arrogance, gluttony, and mismanagement have brought us to this perilous edge. The solution is not a "return to normal."

But there is a way out. As Perkins makes clear, we can create a healthy economy that will encourage businesses to act responsibly, not only in the interests of their shareholders and corporate partners (and the lobbyists they have in their pockets), but in the interests of their employees, their customers, the environment, and society at large.

We can create a society that fosters a just, sustainable, and safe world for us and our children. Each one of us makes these choices every day, in ways that are clearly spelled out in this book.

"We hold the power," he says, "if only we recognize it." Hoodwinked is a powerful polemic that shows not only how we arrived at this precarious point in our history but also what we must do to stop the global tailspin.

Author Biography :  John Perkins website is www.johnperkins.org. His TWITTERID is economic_hitman. John Perkins has lived four lives: as an economic hit man (EHM); as the CEO of a successful alternative energy company, who was rewarded for not disclosing his EHM past; as an expert on indigenous cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to promote ecology and sustainability while continuing to honor his vow of silence about his life as an EHM; and as a writer who, in telling the real-life story about his extraordinary dealings as an EHM, has exposed the world of international intrigue and corruption that is turning the American republic into a global empire despised by increasing numbers of people around the planet. 

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

From the author of the phenomenal New York Times bestseller, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, comes an exposé of international corruption? and an inspired plan to turn the tide for future generations

With a presidential election around the corner, questions of America?s military buildup, environmental impact, and foreign policy are on everyone?s mind. Former ?Economic Hit Man? John Perkins goes behind the scenes of the current geopolitical crisis and offers bold solutions to our most pressing problems. Drawing on interviews with other EHMs, jackals, CIA operatives, reporters, businessmen, and activists, Perkins reveals the secret history of events that have created the current American Empire, including:

How the defeats in Vietnam and Iraq have benefited big business ?

The role of Israel as ? Fortress America in the Middle East ?

Tragic repercussions of the IMF? Asian Economic Collapse ?

The current Latin American revolution and its lessons for democracy ?

U.S. blunders in Tibet, Congo, Lebanon, and Venezuela ?

From the U.S. military in Iraq to infrastructure development in Indonesia, from Peace Corps volunteers in Africa to jackals in Venezuela, Perkins exposes a conspiracy of corruption that has fueled instability and anti-Americanism around the globe, with consequences reflected in our daily headlines. Having raised the alarm, Perkins passionately addresses how Americans can work to create a more peaceful and stable world for future generations.

Author Biography :  John Perkins website is www.johnperkins.org. His TWITTERID is economic_hitman. John Perkins has lived four lives: as an economic hit man (EHM); as the CEO of a successful alternative energy company, who was rewarded for not disclosing his EHM past; as an expert on indigenous cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to promote ecology and sustainability while continuing to honor his vow of silence about his life as an EHM; and as a writer who, in telling the real-life story about his extraordinary dealings as an EHM, has exposed the world of international intrigue and corruption that is turning the American republic into a global empire despised by increasing numbers of people around the planet.

Economics for Real People


The second edition of the fun and fascinating guide to the main ideas of the Austrian School of economics, written in sparkling prose especially for the non-economist. Gene Callahan shows that good economics isn't about government planning or statistical models. It's about human beings and the choices they make in the real world.
This may be the most important book of its kind since Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson. Though written for the beginner, it has been justly praised by scholars too, including Israel Kirzner, Walter Block, and Peter Boettke.

Author Biography : Gene Callahan is an American economist and writer. He is an adjunct scholar with the Ludwig von Mises Institute, a charter member of the Michael Oakeshott Association, and is the author of two books, Economics for Real People and PUCK. Callahan has written for Reason, The Freeman, The Free Market, Slick Times, Java Developer's Journal, Software Development, Dr. Dobb's Journal, Human Rights Review, Independent Review, NYU Journal of Law and Liberty, Review of Austrian Economics, and other publications. He was also a frequent contributor to LewRockwell.com, prior to 2008. Originally from Connecticut, Callahan has a Master's degree from the London School of Economics, a PhD from Cardiff University, and currently lives in Brooklyn, NY.

The Theory of Money and Credit

Economist and philosopher, Ludwig von Mises present his "Theory of Money and Credit" by first looking at the nature and value of money, why there is a demand for money, and how it is used as currency. He goes on to explain the purchasing power of money and how it determines economic and monetary policy, often in a way that results in financial melt-downs.

Author Biography : Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises ( 29 September 1881 – 10 October 1973) was a philosopher, Austrian School economist, and classical liberal. He became a prominent figure in the Austrian School of economic thought and is best known for his work on praxeology. Fearing a Nazi takeover of Switzerland, where he was living at the time, Mises emigrated to the United States in 1940. Mises had a significant influence on the libertarian movement in the United States in the mid-20th century.

What Has Government Done to Our Money?

What Has Government Done to Our Money? was first published in 1962 as Money, free and unfree and then a year later under its current title. It details the history of money, from early barter systems, to the gold standard, to present-day systems of paper money. Rothbard explains how money was originally developed, and why gold was chosen as the preferred commodity to use as money. The author also explains how the gold standard makes money a commodity, and how market forces create a stable economy. Rothbard shows that many European governments went bankrupt due to World War I and left the gold standard in order to try to solve their financial issues, which was not the right solution. He also argues that this strategy was partially responsible for World War II and led to economic problems throughout the world.


Author Biography : Gene Callahan is an American economist and writer. He is an adjunct scholar with the Ludwig von Mises Institute, a charter member of the Michael Oakeshott Association, and is the author of two books, Economics for Real People and PUCK.
Callahan has written for Reason, The Freeman, The Free Market, Slick Times, Java Developer's Journal, Software Development, Dr. Dobb's Journal, Human Rights Review, Independent Review, NYU Journal of Law and Liberty, Review of Austrian Economics, and other publications. He was also a frequent contributor to LewRockwell.com, prior to 2008.
Originally from Connecticut, Callahan has a Master's degree from the London School of Economics, a PhD from Cardiff University, and currently lives in Brooklyn, NY

The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents--The Definitive Edition

An unimpeachable classic work in political philosophy, intellectual and cultural history, and economics, The Road to Serfdom has inspired and infuriated politicians, scholars, and general readers for half a century. Originally published in 1944—when Eleanor Roosevelt supported the efforts of Stalin, and Albert Einstein subscribed lock, stock, and barrel to the socialist program—The Road to Serfdom was seen as heretical for its passionate warning against the dangers of state control over the means of production. For F. A. Hayek, the collectivist idea of empowering government with increasing economic control would lead not to a utopia but to the horrors of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.

First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.

With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.

Author Biography : Friedrich August Hayek (1899-1992), recipient of the Medal of Freedom in 1991 and co-winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1974, was a pioneer in monetary theory and the principal proponent of libertarianism in the twentieth century. He taught at the University of London, the University of Chicago, and the University of Freiburg. His influence on the economic policies in capitalist countries has been profound, especially during the Reagan administration in the U.S. and the Thatcher government in the U.K.

The Law

The Law was originally published in French in 1850 by Frederic Bastiat. It was written two years after the third French Revolution of 1848 and a few months before his death of tuberculosis at age 49. It is the work for which Bastiat is most famous. This translation to American English is from 1874.

Author Biography : Claude Frédéric Bastiat (pronounced: ) (30 June 1801 – 24 December 1850) was a French classical liberal theorist, political economist, and member of the French assembly. He was notable for developing the important economic concept of opportunity cost, and for penning the influential Parable of the Broken Window (AKA "Broken Window Fallacy").

Economics in One Lesson: The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics

Book Description : A million copy seller, Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson is a classic economic primer. But it is also much more, having become a fundamental influence on modern “libertarian” economics of the type espoused by Ron Paul and others.
Considered among the leading economic thinkers of the “Austrian School,” which includes Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich (F.A.) Hayek, and others, Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993), was a libertarian philosopher, an economist, and a journalist. He was the founding vice-president of the Foundation for Economic Education and an early editor of The Freeman magazine, an influential libertarian publication. Hazlitt wrote Economics in One Lesson, his seminal work, in 1946. Concise and instructive, it is also deceptively prescient and far-reaching in its efforts to dissemble economic fallacies that are so prevalent they have almost become a new orthodoxy.

Many current economic commentators across the political spectrum have credited Hazlitt with foreseeing the collapse of the global economy which occurred more than 50 years after the initial publication of Economics in One Lesson. Hazlitt’s focus on non-governmental solutions, strong — and strongly reasoned — anti-deficit position, and general emphasis on free markets, economic liberty of individuals, and the dangers of government intervention make Economics in One Lesson, every bit as relevant and valuable today as it has been since publication.

Author Biography : Henry Stuart Hazlitt (November 28, 1894 – July 9, 1993) was an American economist, philosopher, literary critic and journalist for such publications as The Wall Street Journal, The Nation, The American Mercury, Newsweek, and The New York Times, and he has been recognized as a leading interpreter of economic issues from the perspective of American conservatism and libertarianism.

How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly

Book Description : In How the West Was Lost, the New York Times bestselling author Dambisa Moyo offers a bold account of the decline of the West’s economic supremacy. She examines how the West’s flawed financial decisions have resulted in an economic and geopolitical seesaw that is now poised to tip in favor of the emerging world, especially China. 

Amid the hype of China’s rise, however, the most important story of our generation is being pushed aside: America is not just in economic decline, but on course to become the biggest welfare state in the history of the West. The real danger is a thome, Moyo claims. While some countries – such as Germany and Sweden – have deliberately engineered and financed welfare states, the United States risks turning itself into a bloated welfare state not because of ideology or a larger vision of economic justice, but out of economic desperation and short-sighted policymaking. How the West Was Lost reveals not only the economic myopia of the West but also the radical solutions that it needs to adopt in order to assert itself as a global economic power once again.





Author Biography :
Dr. Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who writes on the macroeconomy and global affairs.

She is the author of the New York Times Bestsellers "Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa", "How The West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly - And the Stark Choices Ahead" and "Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the World".

Ms. Moyo was named by Time Magazine as one of the "100 Most Influential People in the World", and was named to the World Economic Forum's Young Global Leaders Forum. Her work regularly appears in economic and finance-related publications such as the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.

She completed a doctorate in Economics at Oxford University and holds a Masters degree from Harvard University. She completed an undergraduate degree in Chemistry and an MBA in Finance at the American University in Washington D.C..

Jim Rogers Blog: The Solution Is Not Papering It Over

Jim Rogers Blog: The Solution Is Not Papering It Over: A recent video interview with Reuters. Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has bee...



International investor Jim Rogers says all that the Fed has done with QE is to artificially inflate stock and bond markets. He argues the Fed could push the U.S. into another recession in 2013. (September 12, 2012)

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Debt and Hyperinflation

by Ranting Andy www.milesfranklin.com

The inevitable COLLAPSE of the U.S. dollar is a mathematical certainty, but the timing of its occurrence is impossible to predict. Assuming no “black swan” events – like nuclear war or catastrophic market crashes – I believe the dollar will have lost the last vestiges of its “reserve currency status” within two to three years; and likely, within five years be replaced by a new, gold-backed currency. However, such numbers are pure speculation, as no one truly knows what will happen, or – more importantly – when, and why.

That is why I repeatedly recommend ownership of PHYSICAL gold and silver; as regardless of this time frame, the likelihood of prematurely selling your bullion is extremely low – barring personal financial emergencies, of course. And the same goes for “betting” on the timing of Hyperinflation – as if you hold too much debt before it occurs, you could lose the underlying assets – such as your home – or even your PHYSICAL PMs if you need to sell them to pay off your debts.

Moreover, think long and hard about the wisdom of purposefully holding large amounts of debt into what could be a cataclysmic financial event. Ann Barnhardt says to pay off as much debt as possible beforehand, with the aim of distancing oneself as much as possible from “the system” when “the Big One” hits. And frankly, I agree with her, 100%. Sure, if your bank fails, your mortgage obligation may go with it. But who’s to say the bank won’t be acquired by a more evil entity, such as the U.S. GOVERNMENT? For all we know, a new, totalitarian dictator will declare all mortgaged homes state property – or some other, equally draconian decree.

As for what happens to debt during Hyperinflation, it is absolutely devalued – benefitting the borrower, at the expense of the lender. Out of control MONEY PRINTING may cause a loaf of bread to cost $500,000, but your $500,000 mortgage will still be the same; in other words, worth the same as the bread. If you have limited savings, you still won’t be able to pay off your mortgage – especially if you lose your job, a highly likely scenario. However, you could sell ITEMS OF REAL VALUE – like a loaf of bread, or a gold coin – to obtain the funds to pay off your mortgage. Moreover, a handful of companies might even institute inflation-adjusted pay – though I wouldn’t count on it.

Hyperinflation could break out at any time – as in the case of the aforementioned “black swan” events. However, more likely a 1930s-like scenario of unemployment, poverty, social unrest, and war will precede it. PHYSICAL Precious Metals will protect you under all scenarios, but DEBT could prove just as much an albatross as a boon. It’s VERY rare for anything positive to ever come of debt, so I strongly advise you do not consider it an “asset.”

Author : Ranting Andy Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.

Steve Forbes: Get Ready, Gold Standard is Coming Read more: Steve Forbes: Get Ready, Gold Standard is Coming

By Forrest Jones from : www.moneynews.com


Low interest rates and extremely accommodative monetary policies will leave the country with no choice but to return to a modern version of the gold standard, said publisher and one-time GOP presidential hopeful Steve Forbes.
The GOP platform has called for a commission to study the feasibility of the gold standard, which attaches the value of the dollar to a fixed weight of gold.
President Richard Nixon dropped the gold standard in 1971 and opened the era of a fiat dollar. Supporters of the gold standard’s revival say the plan would prevent the government from living outside of its means like it does today.
Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did Gold will likely take a back seat to jobs, Middle East tensions and entitlement and other economic reforms in the upcoming elections.
“But the yellow metal will be a hot topic in the next 24 months. The commission is going to take on an importance that will astound today’s political punditry, besotted as they are with stale Keynesian quackeries about money, taxes and spending,” Forbes wrote in his publication.
“Why? Events economic and political. The ever deepening financial crisis around the world will force the new Romney-Ryan administration to consider — and quickly, too — dramatic measures to deal with the disaster,” Forbes added.
“The Obama/Bernanke Federal Reserve has been an abysmal failure. No major country’s central bank has been so destructive since the Fed in the 1970s; prior to that, nearly a century ago, it was Germany’s central bank, which created a hyperinflation that helped set up an environment for the Nazi revolution.”
Since the downturn, the Fed under Chairman Ben Bernanke has slashed interest rates to near zero and has injected some $2.3 trillion into the economy by purchasing assets such as Treasury holdings or mortgage-backed securities from banks, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing that floods the economy with liquidity in way to encourage investing and hiring.
Critics say the move consists merely of printing money out of thin air and has planted the seeds for inflation down the road.
Such policy would be undoable under a gold standard, since the amount of money in circulation is tied to a fixed amount of gold.
“In order to work properly and productively, markets need a reliable pricing mechanism,” Forbes wrote.
“By manipulating interest rates on such an unprecedented scale the Federal Reserve has effectively destroyed the ability of our credit markets to genuinely price the borrowing and lending of money. Does anyone really believe a 10-year Treasury should yield little more than 1.5 percent or a 30-year government bond just under 3 percent?”
Some analysts say calls for a gold standard serve a message the country needs to address much-needed fiscal and monetary reforms.
“Examining a return to the gold standard is one avenue to show the public and markets a level of seriousness about the U.S dollar, monetary policy and the budget deficit,” said Jeffrey Wright, managing director of Global Hunter Securities, according to Reuters.

Is Central Bank Buying Just a Driving Force Behind Gold or Much More?! – Part II


by Julian D. W. Phillips - Gold Forecaster 

Basel III Discussing Lifting the Accepted Value of Gold on Commercial Banks Balance Sheets from 50% to 100%Part of the side-lining of gold from the monetary system was through either taxation on its sale (in some countries) or by undervaluing it as an asset.

When the 2007 credit crunch hit hard, the loss in value of so many paper assets forced the sale even of those assets that did manage to retain both value and liquidity. Individual investors often sold gold, silver, and the like to cover margin requirements that screamed to be topped up in the hope of retaining assets that were losing value. That’s why asset values on so many fronts declined so markedly. Even assets whose market fundamentals remained solid were sold down only to recover when the storm passed. Gold and silver were among those.

At banking level, the pressure to go against investor logic was due to the regulations of the system. With gold a Tier II asset in bank’s balance sheets, only 50% of its value could be credited as an asset to that balance sheet. So its real market value could only be given meaning when it was sold. By selling gold and using the proceeds to buy Tier I assets, such as Treasuries, the bank ensured that their balance sheets benefitted fully from its value. Even when the gold price fell 20% it was worth selling, so that at least 80% of its former [$1,200] value could be credited to the bank’s balance sheet instead of just 50% [or 40% at the value after a fall in the price of 20%].

As the value of assets of various governments and potentially U.S. bonds are threatened by over-indebtedness, commercial banks are left little recourse except changing the situation by changing the rules for the banks. Hence, the current discussions on its definition in the bank’s balance sheets. If gold is redefined as a Tier I asset, then when any future loss of asset value of paper assets occurs, there will be no need for banks to sell gold to compensate for such falls. And, as gold has amply demonstrated, the gold price is more than likely to rise in such situations, proving to be a ‘counter to all paper assets’ on the bank’s balance sheets.

Such a change will do a great deal to remove the shock to the solvency of so many commercial banks in credit crunches and the like.Will the change happen? We believe so and expect this to take effect on January 1st 2013.

Why Clearing Entities Are Accepting Gold as Collateral

LCH.Clearnet is a clearing house for major international exchanges and platforms, as well as a range of OTC markets. As recently as 9 months ago, figures showed that they clear approximately 50% of the $348 trillion global interest rate swap market and are the second largest clearer of bonds and repos in the world. In addition, they clear a broad range of asset classes including commodities, securities, exchangetraded derivatives, CDS, energy and freight. The development follows the same significant policy change from CME Clearing Europe, the London-based clearinghouse of CME Group Inc., announced recently that it planned to accept gold bullion as collateral for margin requirements on over-the-counter commodities derivatives. Both C.M.E. and now LCH.Clearnet Group have decided to allow use of gold as collateral from 28th August. It is likely that they too have the same concerns about the possibility of another ‘credit crunch’ and the danger forced asset sales can have on liquidity. They too see the benefits of treating gold as money and collateral.

LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd. said it will accept ‘loco London’ gold [0.999 or 0.995 quality gold] as collateral for margin-cover requirements on OTC precious-metals forward contracts and on Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange precious-metals contracts starting Aug. 28. ‘Loco London’ gold is London ‘Good Delivery’ Bars (roughly 400-ounce or 12.5 kilograms gold bar) held with LBMA members within the London bullion clearing system. The clearing house has already been using gold bullion as collateral since 2011 but now will accept ‘loco London’ gold as collateral.


Additionally, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. too has allowed the use of gold as collateral. LCH.Clearnet limited the amount of gold that could be used as collateral to no more than 40% of the total margin cover requirement for a member across all products and at a maximum of $200 million, or roughly 130,000 troy ounces, per member group. David Farrar, Director, LCH.Clearnet said at the time that “market participants want greater choice when it comes to assets that can be used as collateral. Gold is ideal; as an asset it typically performs well in times of financial stress, remains liquid and has a well-established pricing mechanism.”

Thus the commercial banking system is and has prepared to treat gold as full-bloodied money because of its invaluable liquidity virtues and its acceptability even under pressure.

We believe that the markets have yet to catch up to what’s going to happen. But the current gold price breakout is not because of this aspect of gold; it’s because of both Technical and seasonal factors. When gold is a Tier I asset and commercial banks appear in the market place, then the gold market will also see a new driving force behind the gold price. There is still a considerable distance to go before the gold price really does discount these potential changes.

In summary, the banking system, overall, is moving toward where gold will be an active, confidence-building monetary asset.
Will ‘Powers that Be’ Continue to Allow Citizens to Own Gold?


With gold moving back to such a pivotal position in the monetary system, won’t the private sector interfere with the ‘stability’ of the gold market, chasing its price up just as the Hunt Brothers tried to do in the days of yesteryear? This is possible, but this time the gold price will not be at a fixed price as it was under the gold standard. By ‘floating’ the gold price, every time it rises in price, it will benefit bank’s balance sheets and liquidity levels, countering volatile markets. The reverse is true if the gold price falls and other assets rise in value as the markets seems to believe will be the case.

Overall there will be a ‘value anchor’ as Mr. Zoellick, the last head of the World Bank, advocated last year.

If these changes are instituted, there is a danger of interference in the gold market price by the public, but on the upside not the downside. After all, it will be in the interests of the monetary system to see higher gold prices rather than lower prices that the powers-that-be appeared to want between 1985 and 2005. But they will want to see a level of stability consistent with that of currencies and other monetary assets in that situation. Their desire for this can be overwhelming, as we saw in 1933 when U.S. citizens were banned from holding most forms of gold in the interest of the nation’s monetary system. It was not until 1974 that they were again permitted to do so; however, this permission came with the proviso that owning gold from then on was a “privilege, not a right” as though to warn us all that things could change again. Even though governments attempted to write gold out of the system, they made it clear that they considered gold as part of their domain.

This is a real danger and one that should not be overlooked by us all in all the nations of the world. Any government that feels it is in their interests to take their citizen’s gold will do so even if it means changing their laws.

Julian Philips' history in the financial world goes back to 1970, after leaving the British Army having been an Officer in the Light Infantry, serving in Malaya, Mauritius, and Belfast. After a brief period in Timber Management, Julian joined the London Stock Exchange, qualifying as a member. He specialised from the beginning in currencies, gold and the "Dollar Premium". At the time, the gold / currency world exploded into action after the floating of the $ and the Pound Sterling. He wrote on gold and the $ premium in magazines, Accountancy and The International Currency Review. Julian moved to South Africa, where he was appointed a Macro economist for the Electricity Supply Commission, guiding currency decisions on the multi-Billion foreign Loan Portfolio, before joining Chase Manhattan the the U.K. Merchant Bank, Hill Samuel, in Johannesburg, specialising in gold. He moved to Capetown, where establishing the Fund Management department of the Board of Executors. Julian returned to the 'Gold World' over two years ago and established "Gold - Authentic Money" and now contributing to "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster".

Jim Rogers on the EU, the U S election, and the next big investment opportunity



Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC

Jim Rogers, a native of Demopolis, Alabama, is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and most publications dealing with the economy or finance.



Wednesday, September 5, 2012

The Faustian Bargain

The Faustian Bargain by guggenheimpartners.com

Since 2008, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing instead of undertaking structural reforms have arguably entered into a Faustian bargain of epic proportions. What are the potential consequences of global central banks printing trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, francs, and yen in an attempt to provide short-term fixes for their nations’ long-term economic problems?
In Goethe’s 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country’s fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing (QE) instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.
As a result of multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing programs, central banks around the world have compromised their ability to control the money supply, making them vulnerable to runaway inflation. When interest rates rise, the market value of central bank assets could fall below the face value of their liabilities, potentially rendering the banks incapable of protecting the stability and purchasing power of their currencies.

In the Beginning, There Was Gold

To better understand the potential consequences of quantitative easing, it is useful to review the historical evolution of central banking. Early central banks acted as clearing houses for gold. Individuals and trading companies placed their bullion on deposit at a central bank and received a claim that could be redeemed upon demand. The system’s strength was largely derived from its simplicity. This innovation had a profound effect on global trade. In the British Empire, for example, it meant a gold-backed pound note from London could be used for commercial purposes in Bombay.

Today, the gold standard no longer exists and for the first time the entire global monetary system is built on a foundation of fiat currencies. This monetary paradigm works because of an abiding faith that paper money will be accepted as a medium of exchange and remain a store of value. At the core of this system is the presumption that central banks, as the issuers of paper money, have enough assets that can be readily sold in the event that their currencies’ value begins to fall and the money supply needs to be reduced. When confidence in a central bank’s ability to reduce its money supply in a sufficient amount to maintain its currency’s purchasing power is drawn into question, there is a risk of a currency crisis or even hyperinflation.




While Europe has had central banking since the 17th century, the United States did not have a central bank until the beginning of the 20th century. As a direct result of the panic of 1907, the Progressive political movement created the Federal Reserve System in 1913. Under the newly created Federal Reserve, the definition of eligible central bank reserve assets was extended beyond gold to include short-term bills of trade such as bankers’ acceptances. By expanding the definition of reserve assets the Federal Reserve had the ability to temporarily increase the money supply in excess of the amount of its gold reserves, to provide elasticity to credit markets. This incremental flexibility in money creation was designed to reduce the risk of panics which had plagued the U.S. through most of the 19th century under the gold standard.
During the Great Depression of the 1930s the Federal Reserve sought greater flexibility and leverage. In 1934, the Federal Reserve noteholders’ right to convert paper to gold on demand was unexpectedly revoked and the U.S. government seized all of the citizenry’s gold holdings. Subsequently, the Treasury arbitrarily re-valued the price of gold from $20.70 to $35 per ounce. Nevertheless, the presumption remained that every U.S. dollar was “as good as gold” because the Federal Reserve continued to hold bullion as its primary reserve asset. 

A Dangerous Game

In 1935, the Federal Reserve was also granted “temporary” emergency powers allowing it to begin using Treasury securities, or government debt, as a reserve asset. The problem with Treasury securities as a reserve asset is that, unlike gold, they are affected by changes in the level of interest rates. The impact of interest rates on the value of these securities is commonly measured in units of time and price sensitivity referred to as duration.



The higher the duration of an asset, the more sensitive its price is to changes in interest rates. For example, an upward move in interest rates will cause the value of a bond with a duration of 10 years to fall by 10 times the value of a bond with a duration of one year.
DURATION: A way of measuring the sensitivity of a bond’s value to changes in interest rates. A bond’s duration is the number of years it takes for its cash flows to equal the price for which the lender (investor) bought the bond. A bond without periodic payments (zero-coupon bonds) has a duration equal to its term to maturity.
As the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities increased relative to its gold holdings, its portfolio took on greater duration risk. For the first time, the potential existed that rising interest rates could cause the market value of the Federal Reserve’s assets to fall below the face value of its liabilities (Federal Reserve notes). This was not a concern under the tautological gold-backed system because the value of a central bank’s outstanding notes was directly tied to the amount of gold in its vaults.
The way to minimize the risk of a meaningful decline in the value of balance sheet capital resulting from a rise in interest rates was for central banks to maintain a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio while keeping a relatively short interest rate duration on its assets. By maintaining this discipline the Federal Reserve was virtually assured of having enough liquid assets at market levels to repurchase dollars without incurring large losses on its portfolio.

A Quantitative Quagmire

From the 1930s until the early part of the current century, the Federal Reserve was able to engage in relatively effective monetary policy. In 2008, just prior to the first of two rounds of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve had $41 billion in capital and roughly $872 billion in liabilities, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 21-to-1. The Federal Reserve’s asset portfolio included $480 billion in Treasury securities with an average duration of about 2.5 years. Therefore, a 100 basis point increase in interest rates would have caused the value of its portfolio to fall by 2.5%, or $12 billion. A loss of that magnitude would have been severe but not devastating.





Beginning in 2008, the monetary orthodoxy of the previous 95 years quickly disappeared. By 2011, the Federal Reserve’s portfolio consisted of more than $2.6 trillion in Treasury and agency securities, mortgage bonds, and other obligations. This resulted in an increase in the central bank’s debt-to-equity ratio to roughly 51-to-1. Under Operation Twist the Federal Reserve swapped its short-term Treasury securities holdings for longer-term ones in an attempt to induce borrowing and growth in the economy. This caused an extension of the duration of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio to more than eight years.

Now, a 100 basis-point increase in interest rates would cause the market value of the Federal Reserve’s assets to fall by about 8% or approximately $200 billion which would leave the Federal Reserve with a capital deficit of $150 billion, rendering it insolvent under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Although this may not happen in the immediate future, if interest rates rose five percentage points the Federal Reserve could lose more than a trillion dollars from its fixed income portfolio.

Staring Into a Monetary Abyss

Unlikely as it seems in a world of zero-bound interest rates, someday, as the economy continues to expand, the demand for credit will increase to the point that interest rates will begin to rise. In time, significantly stronger growth will create economic bottlenecks, placing upward pressure on prices. At that time the Federal Reserve would be expected to restrain credit growth by selling securities, resulting in a further increase in interest rates.
As interest rates rise, the market value of the Federal Reserve’s assets will fall. It could then become apparent that the face value of the Federal Reserve’s obligations had become greater than the market value of its assets. This could leave the Federal Reserve without enough liquid assets to sell to protect the purchasing power of the dollar, resulting in a downward spiral in its value.
If the dollar weakens relative to other currencies, its use as a reserve currency, and the safety of U.S. Treasuries, could falter. Given the United States’ dependence on foreign capital to finance its large fiscal deficits, a reduction in foreign flows could cause Treasury securities to lose a significant amount of value. The Federal Reserve could then find itself having to support the price of the country’s debt by becoming the buyer of last resort for Treasury securities. This scenario would closely resemble events unfolding in the periphery of Europe today. By printing increasing amounts of money to finance the national debt, the Federal Reserve would lose control of its ability to manage the money supply, leaving the government hostage to its printing press.





Investment Implications
To hedge against deterioration in the dollar’s purchasing power, investors have already begun migrating toward hard assets such as gold, commercial real estate, artwork, collectibles, and rare consumer products like fine wines. Such diversification may have significant barriers to entry, however, considering the risks built into financial assets, long-term investment portfolios should be at least partially composed of tangible assets.
Other areas that are likely to perform well in the immediate term due to effects of quantitative easing are credit-related instruments including bank-loans and asset-backed securities. High yield debt should perform well because abundant liquidity means default rates will remain low. Additionally, the ongoing balance sheet expansion by the European Central Bank means European equity prices are likely to outperform U.S. equities over the coming years.




Long-duration, fixed-rate assets such as government bonds are likely to underperform. Given the primacy of Treasury securities in the Federal Reserve’s current yield curve management program, Treasury bonds will come under the greatest pressure once the Federal Reserve ends QE. This asset class’ yields have fallen by over 1100 basis points in the past three decades. While no one knows if we have reached the bottom for Treasury rates, staying in the market for the final 50 or 60 basis points appears imprudent. As Jim Grant has noted, investors’ perception of U.S. Treasuries – and most sovereign debt – is shifting from representing risk-free return to “return-free risk.” Now is a better time to sell Treasury securities than to buy them, and for the stout of heart this is an opportunity to set short positions in the asset class.

An Uncertain Future

Half a year before the centennial of central banking in the U.S., neither policymakers nor investors have much to celebrate. By abandoning monetary orthodoxy and pursuing large-scale asset purchases, global central banks have increased the risk of inflation and compromised their ability to stamp it out. Inordinately higher leverage ratios and the extension of central bank portfolio duration means governments now face the potential for central bank solvency crises. It is too early to predict exactly how this Faustian bargain will play out; but, with each additional paper note that rolls off the printing press or gets conjured up in the ether, the likelihood of a happy ending becomes increasingly evanescent.


Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Network (film)


Howard Beale (Peter Finch), the longtime anchor of the UBS Evening News, learns from news division president Max Schumacher (William Holden) that he has just two more weeks on the air because of declining ratings. The two old friends get roaring drunk and lament the state of their industry. The following night, Beale announces on live television that he will commit suicide on next Tuesday's broadcast. UBS fires him after this incident, but Schumacher intervenes so that Beale can have a dignified farewell. Beale promises he will apologize for his outburst, but once on the air, he launches back into a rant claiming that life is "bullshit". Beale's outburst causes the newscast's ratings to spike, and much to Schumacher's dismay, the upper echelons of UBS decide to exploit Beale's antics rather than pull him off the air. In one impassioned diatribe, Beale galvanizes the nation, persuading his viewers to shout out of their windows "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!".
  
Howard Beale (Peter Finch) delivering his "mad as hell" speech
Diana Christensen (Faye Dunaway) heads the network's programming department; seeking just one hit show, she cuts a deal with a band of radical terrorists (a parody of the Symbionese Liberation Army called the "Ecumenical Liberation Army") for a new docudrama series called the Mao-Tse Tung Hour for the upcoming fall season. When Beale's ratings seem to have topped out, Christensen approaches Schumacher and offers to help him "develop" the news show. He says no to the professional offer, but not to the personal one, and the two begin an affair. When Schumacher decides to end the "Howard as Angry Man" format, Christensen convinces her boss, Frank Hackett (Robert Duvall), to slot the evening news show under the entertainment division so that she can develop it. Hackett agrees, bullies the UBS executives to consent, and fires Schumacher at the same time. Soon after, Beale is hosting a new program called The Howard Beale Show, top-billed as "the mad prophet of the airwaves". Ultimately, the show becomes the most highly rated program on television, and Beale finds new celebrity preaching his angry message in front of a live studio audience that, on cue, chants Beale's signature catchphrase en masse: "We're as mad as hell, and we're not going to take this anymore." At first, Max's and Diana's romance withers as the show flourishes, but in the flush of high ratings, the two ultimately find their ways back together, and Schumacher leaves his wife of over 25 years for Christensen. But Christensen's fanatical devotion to her job and emotional emptiness ultimately drive Max back to his wife, and he warns his former lover that she will self-destruct at the pace she is running with her career. "You are television incarnate, Diana," he tells her, "indifferent to suffering, insensitive to joy. All of life is reduced to the common rubble of banality."
When Beale discovers that CCA, the conglomerate that owns UBS, will be bought out by an even larger Saudi Arabian conglomerate, he launches an on-screen tirade against the deal, encouraging viewers to send telegrams to the White House telling them, "I want the CCA deal stopped now!" This throws the top network brass into a state of panic because the company's debt load has made merger essential for survival. Hackett takes Beale to meet with CCA chairman Arthur Jensen (Ned Beatty), who explicates his own "corporate cosmology" to the attentive Beale. Jensen delivers a tirade of his own in an "appropriate setting," the dramatically darkened CCA boardroom, that suggests to the docile Beale that Jensen may himself be some higher power — describing the interrelatedness of the participants in the international economy, and the illusory nature of nationality distinctions. Jensen persuades Beale to abandon the populist messages and preach his new "evangel". But television audiences find his new sermons on the dehumanization of society to be depressing, and ratings begin to slide, yet Jensen will not allow UBS executives to fire Beale. Seeing its two-for-the-price-of-one value — solving the Beale problem plus sparking a boost in season-opener ratings — Christensen, Hackett, and the other executives decide to hire the Ecumenical Liberation Army to assassinate Beale on the air, putting an end to The Howard Beale Show and kicking off a second season of The Mao-Tse Tung Hour.
The film ends with the narrator stating:
This was the story of Howard Beale, the first known instance of a man who was killed because he had lousy ratings.


How Long Will the Dollar Remain the World's Reserve Currency?


We frequently hear the financial press refer to the U.S. dollar as the "world's reserve currency," implying that our dollar will always retain its value in an ever shifting world economy. But this is a dangerous and mistaken assumption.
Since August 15, 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window and refused to pay out any of our remaining 280 million ounces of gold, the U.S. dollar has operated as a pure fiat currency. This means the dollar became an article of faith in the continued stability and might of the U.S. government.
In essence, we declared our insolvency in 1971. Everyone recognized some other monetary system had to be devised in order to bring stability to the markets.
Amazingly, a new system was devised which allowed the U.S. to operate the printing presses for the world reserve currency with no restraints placed on it-- not even a pretense of gold convertibility! Realizing the world was embarking on something new and mind-boggling, elite money managers, with especially strong support from U.S. authorities, struck an agreement with OPEC in the 1970s to price oil in U.S. dollars exclusively for all worldwide transactions. This gave the dollar a special place among world currencies and in essence backed the dollar with oil.
In return, the U.S. promised to protect the various oil-rich kingdoms in the Persian Gulf against threat of invasion or domestic coup. This arrangement helped ignite radical Islamic movements among those who resented our influence in the region. The arrangement also gave the dollar artificial strength, with tremendous financial benefits for the United States. It allowed us to export our monetary inflation by buying oil and other goods at a great discount as the dollar flourished.
In 2003, however, Iran began pricing its oil exports in Euro for Asian and European buyers. The Iranian government also opened an oil bourse in 2008 on the island of Kish in the Persian Gulf for the express purpose of trading oil in Euro and other currencies. In 2009 Iran completely ceased any oil transactions in U.S. dollars. These actions by the second largest OPEC oil producer pose a direct threat to the continued status of our dollar as the world's reserve currency, a threat which partially explains our ongoing hostility toward Tehran.
While the erosion of our petrodollar agreement with OPEC certainly threatens the dollar's status in the Middle East, an even larger threat resides in the Far East. Our greatest benefactors for the last twenty years-- Asian central banks-- have lost their appetite for holding U.S. dollars. China, Japan, and Asia in general have been happy to hold U.S. debt instruments in recent decades, but they will not prop up our spending habits forever. Foreign central banks understand that American leaders do not have the discipline to maintain a stable currency.
If we act now to replace the fiat system with a stable dollar backed by precious metals or commodities, the dollar can regain its status as the safest store of value among all government currencies. If not, the rest of the world will abandon the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Both Congress and American consumers will then find borrowing a dramatically more expensive proposition. Remember, our entire consumption economy is based on the willingness of foreigners to hold U.S. debt. We face a reordering of the entire world economy if the federal government cannot print, borrow, and spend money at a rate that satisfies its endless appetite for deficit spending.

Author: Ron Paul
Congressman Ron Paul of Texas enjoys a national reputation as the premier advocate for liberty in politics today. Dr. Paul is the leading spokesman in Washington for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, and a return to sound monetary policies based on commodity-backed currency. He is known among both his colleagues in Congress and his constituents for his consistent voting record in the House of Representatives: Dr. Paul never votes for legislation unless the proposed measure is expressly authorized by the Constitution. In the words of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, Dr. Paul is the "one exception to the Gang of 535" on Capitol Hill.




Sunday, September 2, 2012

The Informant!

Mark Whitacre, a rising star at Decatur, Illinois based Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) in the early 1990s, blows the whistle on the company’s price-fixing tactics at the urging of his wife Ginger.[4][5]
One night in November 1992, Whitacre confesses to FBI special agent Brian Shepard that ADM executives — including Whitacre himself — had routinely met with competitors to fix the price of lysine, an additive used in the commercial livestock industry. Whitacre secretly gathers hundreds of hours of video and audio over several years to present to the FBI.[4][6][7] He assists in gathering evidence by clandestinely taping the company’s activity in business meetings at various locations around the globe such as Tokyo, Paris, Mexico City, and Hong Kong, eventually collecting enough evidence of collaboration and conspiracy to warrant a raid of ADM.
Whitacre’s good deed dovetails with his own major infractions and his internal, secret struggle with bipolar disorder seems to take over his exploits.[4][8] The bulk of the film focuses on Whitacre's meltdown resulting from the pressures of wearing a wire and organizing surveillance for the FBI for three years, instigated by Whitacre's reaction, in increasingly manic overlays, to various trivial magazine articles he reads. In a stunning turn of events immediately following the covert portion of the case, headlines around the world report that Whitacre had embezzled $9 million from his own company at the same period of time he was secretly working with/ for the FBI and taping his co-workers, while simultaneously aiming to be elected as ADM CEO following the arrest and conviction of the remaining upper management members.[4]In the ensuing chaos, Whitacre appears to shift his trust and randomly destabilize his relationships with Agent Shepard, his partner Agent Herndon and numerous attorneys in the process.
Authorities at ADM began investigating, in an attempt to cover tracks, the mounted papertrail with forged names and specs that Whitacre had built to cover his own subversive deeds. After being confronted with evidence of his fraud, Whitacre's reasoning and defensive claims begin to spiral out of control, including an accusation of assault and battery against Agent Shepard and the FBI, which had made a substantial move to distance their case from Whitacre entirely. Because of this major infraction and Whitacre’s bizarre behavior, he was sentenced to a prison term three times as long as that meted out to the white-collar criminals he helped to catch.[4] In the epilogue of Whitacre's case, Agent Herndon visits inmate Whitacre in prison as he videotapes a futile appeal to seek a presidential pardon. Overweight, balding and psychologically beaten after his years long ordeal, Mark Whitacre is eventually released from prison with his wife Ginger, waiting to greet him.

Margin Call


Margin Call is a 2011 American independent drama film directed by J.C. Chandor. The storyline was conceived from a screenplay also written by Chandor. The film takes place over a 36-hour period at a large Wall Street investment bank and highlights the initial stages of the financial crisis of 2007–2008.[2][3] In focus are the actions taken by a group of employees during the subsequent financial collapse.[4] The ensemble cast features Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany, Jeremy Irons,Zachary Quinto, Demi Moore, and Stanley Tucci in lead roles.
The film was a co-production between the motion picture studios of Before the Door Pictures, Benaroya Pictures, Washington Square Films, Margin Call Productions, Sakonnet Capital Partners, and Untitled Entertainment. Theatrically, it was commercially distributed by Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions. Margin Call explores capitalism, greed and investment fraud.[5] Following its wide release in theaters, the film garnered award nominations for its production merits from the Detroit Film Critics Society, along with several separate nominations for its screenplay and direction from recognized award organizations. The film score was orchestrated by musician Nathan Larson.
The film made its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January 25, 2011 and opened in theaters nationwide in the United States on October 21, 2011 grossing $5,354,039 in domestic ticket receipts. It was screened at 199 theaters during its widest release in cinemas. It earned an additional $10,732,208 in business through international release to top out at a combined $16,086,247 in gross revenue. Taking into account its $3.5 million budget costs, the film was technically considered a minor box office success. Preceding its initial screening to the public, the film was generally met with positive critical reviews. With its initial foray into the home media marketplace; the widescreen DVD and Blu-ray editions of the film featuring video commentary, cast and crew selections, deleted scenes and special features among other highlights was released in the United States on December 20, 2011.