Jim Rogers: “This Is Too Insane–And I’m Afraid We’re All Going To Suffer For The Rest Of This Decade”

by bullmarketthinking.com

I was able to reconnect with Jim Rogers this morning out of Spain, legendary co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, author of Hot Commodities, and chairman of the private Beeland Holdings.
It was an especially powerful interview, as Jim spoke towards the relentless downward pressure on gold, the upward explosion in interest rates, central bank money printing, and how to protect yourself ahead of the disastrous times he sees coming.
When asked if we’re seeing forced liquidation leading the smash down in gold this morning, Jim said, “We certainly are. There are a lot of leveraged players who are now being forced to sell. Usually when you have this kind of forced liquidation, you’re getting closer to a bottom, maybe not the final bottom, but certainly close to a bottom. I even bought a little bit [today].”

The Petro Business Cycle

By James J Puplava CFP

 

 

 

 

 

Oil is the lifeblood of modern society, powering over 90% of our transportation fleet on land, sea, and air. Oil is also responsible for 95% of the production of all goods we buy and ultimately drives the natural rhythms of recession and recovery. We define this as the "Petro Business Cycle".

The post-crash world we have inhabited since the credit crisis of 2008 has been defined as "The New Normal"—a phrase used to describe an economic and market environment much different than the three decades that preceded it. In contrast to the past, the "New Normal" will mean a lower living standard for most Americans. It will be a world of lower economic growth, higher unemployment, stagnant corporate profits, and the heavy hand of government intervention in all aspects in the economy. For investors it will be an environment marked by volatility, zero interest rates, and disappointing equity returns.
The age of leverage is coming to an end as consumers, businesses, and governments are forced to rein in their balance sheets. For consumers it will mean less discretionary spending as higher taxes and inflation erode the purchasing power of wages. Businesses will have fewer profit opportunities and find it more difficult to replicate the growth rates of the booming '80s and '90s. Governments will struggle with the illusion that their fiscal and monetary stimulus will produce long lasting effects on the economy. Eventually profligate government spending will give way to an age of austerity now beginning to spread across Europe. It will either be done voluntarily or involuntarily by the heavy hand of the market.

"fraud. why the great recession" (official documentary)

Free markets are not to be blamed for the Great Recession. On the contrary, its origins rest upon the deep government and central bank intervention in the economy. Through fraudulent mechanisms, this causes recurrent boom and bust cycles: bad policies create phases of irrational exuberance, which are then followed by economic recessions, a result that every citizen ends up suffering from.

No Way Out

by Peter Schiff - Europac   By upping the ante once again in its gamble to revive the lethargic economy through monetary action, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is now compelling the rest of us to buy into a game that we may not be able to afford. At his press conference this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained how the easiest policy stance in Fed history has just gotten that much easier. First it gave us zero interest rates, then QEs I and II, Operation Twist, and finally "unlimited" QE3. Now that those moves have failed to deliver economic health, the Fed has doubled the size of its open-ended money printing and has announced a program of data flexibility that virtually insures that they will never bump into limitations, until it's too late. Although their new policies will create numerous long-term challenges for the economy, the biggest near-term challenge for the Fed will be how to keep the momentum going by upping the ante even higher their next meeting.

Jim Rogers - US Headed For A Financial Crisis

Jim Rogers Economic Collapse Martial Law Alex Jones

Simplicity: Part 2

Presentation to the Cambridge House California Investment Conference
Indian Wells, CA

Simplicity: Part 1

Presentation to the Cambridge House California Investment Conference
Indian Wells, CA

Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Markets

Whether its new-fangled Japanese stocks, hi-tech internet company valuations, multi-colored flowers, or mansions made affordable by criminally lax lending standards, Grant Williams notes that a bubble is a bubble is a bubble; and citing Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever; it will stop." In this excellent summary of all things currently (and historically) bubblicious - whether greed-driven or fear-driven - Williams concludes it is never different this time as he addresses the four phases of the classic bubble-wave: smart-money, awareness, mania, blow-off (or crash) and explains how government bonds are set to burst and gold is only just about to enter its mania phase. This far-reaching and entirely accessible presentation is stunning in its clarity and as he notes, while bubbles are always easy to spot ex-ante, understanding how they come about and why they are popped gives the few an opportunity to profit at the expense of the madness of crowds. From tulips to tech-wrecks, and from inflation to insatiable stimulus, the bubble in 'safe-haven flows' that currently exists has all the characteristics of a popular delusion.

by www.zerohedge.com

Currency Wars Simulation

This short video presents a variety of hypothetical scenarios which would have significant effects on currencies and commodities. See how a geopolitical or black-swan event could give real asset investors a tremendous advantage

Two Reasons Why the Gold Market is Under Pressure

 by Michael Pento - Pento Portfolio Strategies

 

There are two reasons why the price of gold has been under pressure in the last few days. One of them is legitimate; while the other is completely without grounds.

1. The U.S. Labor Department announced on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell 30k for the week ending October 6th. The plunge took first-time claims for unemployment insurance to a four-year low. Despite the fact that this drop was mainly produced by one large state not properly reporting additional quarterly claims, the gold market took the data as a sign interest rates may soon have to rise. So I thought it would be a good time to explain that rising interest rates would not negatively affect the price of gold, as long as it is a market-based reaction to inflation; rather than the work of the central bank pushing rates positive in real terms.
2.  

The price of gold increased from $100 an ounce in 1976, to $850 an ounce by 1980. During that same time period the Ten year note yield increased from 7% to 12.5%. The reason why gold increased, despite the fact that nominal interest rates were rising, is because real interest rates were falling throughout that time frame. Bureau of Labor statistics shows that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped from 6% in 1976 to 14% by early 1980. In addition, the Fed, under Arthur Burns and G. William Miller, kept the Funds rate far below inflation throughout their tenure; increasing the interbank lending rate from 5% in 1976, to just 10.5% by late '79--just before Chairman Volcker took the helm.

Raw footage of Jim Rogers interview - The Bubble film

The Bubble is a feature length documentary that ask those who predicted the greatest recession since the Great Depression, why did it happen and what are we facing? The documentary is an adaptation of Tom Woods' New York Times bestseller Meltdown. Filmmaker Jimmy Morrison is releasing each interview in full for free before the film's release.

A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing

He’s the swashbuckling world traveler and legendary investor who made his fortune before he was forty. Now the bestselling author of A Bull in China, Hot Commodities, and Adventure Capitalist shares a heartfelt, indispensable guide for his daughters (and all young investors) to find success and happiness. In A Gift to My Children, Jim Rogers offers advice with his trademark candor and confidence, but this time he adds paternal compassion, protectiveness, and love. Rogers reveals how to learn from his triumphs and mistakes in order to achieve a prosperous, well-lived life. For example:

• Trust your own judgment: Rogers sensed China’s true potential way back in the 1980s, at a time when most analysts were highly skeptical of its prospects for growth.

• Focus on what you like: Rogers was five when he started collecting empty bottles at baseball games instead of playing.

• Be persistent: Coming to Yale from rural Alabama, and in over his head, Rogers never stopped studying and wound up with a scholarship to Oxford.

• See the world: In 1990, Rogers traveled through six continents by motorcycle, gaining a global perspective and learning how to evaluate prospects in rapidly developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

• Nothing is really new: anything deemed “innovative” or “unprecedented” is usually just overhyped, as in the case of the Internet or TV, airplanes, and railroads before it

• And not a bit off the subject, and very important: Boys will need you more than you’ll need them!

Wise and warm, accessible and inspiring, A Gift to My Children is a great gift for all those just starting to invest in their futures.

Author Biography : Born in 1942, Jim Rogers had his first job at age five, picking up bottles at baseball games. Winning a scholarship to Yale, Rogers was coxswain on the crew. Upon graduation, he attended Balliol College at Oxford. After a stint in the army, he began work on Wall Street. He cofounded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next ten years, the portfolio gained more than 4,000 percent, while the S&P rose less than 50 percent. Rogers then decided to retire-at age thirty-seven-but he did not remain idle.Continuing to manage his own portfolio, Rogers served as a professor of finance at the Columbia Univer-sity Graduate School of Business and as moderator of The Dreyfus Roundtable on WCBS and The Profit Motive on FNN. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for his lifelong dream, an around-the-world motorcycle trip: more than 100,000 miles across six continents. That journey became the subject of Rogers's first book, Investment Biker (1994), now available from Random House Trade Paperbacks. While laying plans for his Millennium Adventure 1999-2001, he continued as a media commentator at Worth, CNBC, et al., and as a sometime professor.He now contributes to Fox News, Worth, and others as he and Paige eagerly await their first child. 

Bull in China

If the twentieth century was the American century, then the twenty-first century belongs to China. According to the one and only Jim Rogers, who’s been tracking the Chinese economy since he first went to China in 1984, any investor can get in on the ground floor of “the greatest economic boom since England’s Industrial Revolution.” But the time to act is now.

In A Bull in China, you’ll learn which industries offer the newest and best opportunities, from power, energy, and agriculture to tourism, water, and infrastructure. Rogers demystifies the state policies that are driving earnings and innovation, takes the intimidation factor out of the A-shares, B-shares, and ADRs of Chinese offerings, and profiles “Red Chip” companies, such as Yantai Changyu, China’s largest winemaker, which sells a “Healthy Liquor” line mixed with herbal medicines. Plus, if you want to export something to China yourself–or even buy land there–Rogers tells you the steps you need to take.

No other book–and no other author–can better help you benefit from the new Chinese revolution. Jim Rogers shows you how to make the “amazing energy, potential, and entrepreneurial spirit of a billion people” work for you.

Author Biography : Born in 1942, Jim Rogers had his first job at age five, picking up bottles at baseball games. Winning a scholarship to Yale, Rogers was coxswain on the crew. Upon graduation, he attended Balliol College at Oxford. After a stint in the army, he began work on Wall Street. He cofounded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next ten years, the portfolio gained more than 4,000 percent, while the S&P rose less than 50 percent. Rogers then decided to retire-at age thirty-seven-but he did not remain idle.Continuing to manage his own portfolio, Rogers served as a professor of finance at the Columbia Univer-sity Graduate School of Business and as moderator of The Dreyfus Roundtable on WCBS and The Profit Motive on FNN. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for his lifelong dream, an around-the-world motorcycle trip: more than 100,000 miles across six continents. That journey became the subject of Rogers's first book, Investment Biker (1994), now available from Random House Trade Paperbacks. While laying plans for his Millennium Adventure 1999-2001, he continued as a media commentator at Worth, CNBC, et al., and as a sometime professor.He now contributes to Fox News, Worth, and others as he and Paige eagerly await their first child. 

Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market

The next bull market is here. It’s not in stocks. It’s not in bonds. It’s in commodities –and some smart investors will be riding that bull to record returns in the next decade.

Before Jim Rogers hit the road to write his bestselling books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he was one of the world’s most successful investors. He cofounded the Quantum Fund and made so much money that he never needed to work again. Yet despite his success, Rogers has never written a book of practical investment advice–until now.

In Hot Commodities, Rogers offers the lowdown on the most lucrative markets for today and tomorrow. In 1998, gliding under the radar, a bull market in commodities began. Rogers thinks it’s going to continue for at least fifteen years–and he’s put his money where his mouth is: In 1998, he started his own commodities index fund. It’s up 165% since then, with more than $200 million invested, and it’s the single-best performing index fund in the world in any asset class. Less risky than stocks and less sluggish than bonds,, commodities are where the money is–and will be in the years ahead. Rogers’s strategies are simple and straightforward. You can start small–a few thousand dollars will suffice. It’s all about putting your money into stuff you understand, the basic materials of everyday life, like coal, sugar, cotton, corn, or crude oil. Once you recognize the cyclical and historical trading patterns outlined here, you’ll be on your way.

In language that is both colorful and accessible, but Rogers explains why the world of commodity investing can be one of the simplest of all–and how commodities are the bases by which investors can value companies, markets, and whole economies. To be a truly great investor is to know something about commodities.

For small investors and high rollers alike, Hot Commodities is as good as gold . . . or lead, or aluminum, which are some of the commodities Rogers says could be as rewarding for investors.

Author Biography : Born in 1942, Jim Rogers had his first job at age five, picking up bottles at baseball games. Winning a scholarship to Yale, Rogers was coxswain on the crew. Upon graduation, he attended Balliol College at Oxford. After a stint in the army, he began work on Wall Street. He cofounded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next ten years, the portfolio gained more than 4,000 percent, while the S&P rose less than 50 percent. Rogers then decided to retire-at age thirty-seven-but he did not remain idle.Continuing to manage his own portfolio, Rogers served as a professor of finance at the Columbia Univer-sity Graduate School of Business and as moderator of The Dreyfus Roundtable on WCBS and The Profit Motive on FNN. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for his lifelong dream, an around-the-world motorcycle trip: more than 100,000 miles across six continents. That journey became the subject of Rogers's first book, Investment Biker (1994), now available from Random House Trade Paperbacks. While laying plans for his Millennium Adventure 1999-2001, he continued as a media commentator at Worth, CNBC, et al., and as a sometime professor.He now contributes to Fox News, Worth, and others as he and Paige eagerly await their first child. 

Adventure Capitalist

Drive . . . and grow rich!

The bestselling author of Investment Biker is back from the ultimate road trip: a three-year drive around the world that would ultimately set the Guinness record for the longest continuous car journey. In Adventure Capitalist, legendary investor Jim Rogers, dubbed “the Indiana Jones of finance” by Time magazine, proves that the best way to profit from the global situation is to see the world mile by mile. “While I have never patronized a prostitute,” he writes, “I know that one can learn more about a country from speaking to the madam of a brothel or a black marketeer than from meeting a foreign minister.”

Behind the wheel of a sunburst-yellow, custom-built convertible Mercedes, Rogers and his fiancée, Paige Parker, began their “Millennium Adventure” on January 1, 1999, from Iceland. They traveled through 116 countries, including many where most have rarely ventured, such as Saudi Arabia, Myanmar, Angola, Sudan, Congo, Colombia, and East Timor. They drove through war zones, deserts, jungles, epidemics, and blizzards. They had many narrow escapes.

They camped with nomads and camels in the western Sahara. They ate silkworms, iguanas, snakes, termites, guinea pigs, porcupines, crocodiles, and grasshoppers.

Best of all, they saw the real world from the ground up—the only vantage point from which it can be truly understood—economically, politically, and socially.

Here are just a few of the author’s conclusions:

• The new commodity bull market has started.
• The twenty-first century will belong to China.
• There is a dramatic shortage of women developing in Asia.
• Pakistan is on the verge of disintegrating.
• India, like many other large nations, will break into several countries.
• The Euro is doomed to fail.
• There are fortunes to be made in Angola.
• Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are a scam.
• Bolivia is a comer after decades of instability, thanks to gigantic amounts of natural gas.

Adventure Capitalist is the most opinionated, sprawling, adventurous journey you’re likely to take within the pages of a book—the perfect read for armchair adventurers, global investors, car enthusiasts, and anyone interested in seeing the world and understanding it as it really is.

Author Biography : Born in 1942, Jim Rogers had his first job at age five, picking up bottles at baseball games. Winning a scholarship to Yale, Rogers was coxswain on the crew. Upon graduation, he attended Balliol College at Oxford. After a stint in the army, he began work on Wall Street. He cofounded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next ten years, the portfolio gained more than 4,000 percent, while the S&P rose less than 50 percent. Rogers then decided to retire-at age thirty-seven-but he did not remain idle.Continuing to manage his own portfolio, Rogers served as a professor of finance at the Columbia Univer-sity Graduate School of Business and as moderator of The Dreyfus Roundtable on WCBS and The Profit Motive on FNN. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for his lifelong dream, an around-the-world motorcycle trip: more than 100,000 miles across six continents. That journey became the subject of Rogers's first book, Investment Biker (1994), now available from Random House Trade Paperbacks. While laying plans for his Millennium Adventure 1999-2001, he continued as a media commentator at Worth, CNBC, et al., and as a sometime professor.He now contributes to Fox News, Worth, and others as he and Paige eagerly await their first child.

Jim Rogers on the EU, the U S election, and the next big investment opportunity

Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC

Jim Rogers, a native of Demopolis, Alabama, is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and most publications dealing with the economy or finance.

Commodities Basics for Beginners

You might not know it, but you're already a commodities expert. Whether you've talked about high gasoline prices, or the quality of your last espresso, in some form you've had discussions on the topic. Commodities are a part of daily lives, so perhaps it's time to take a closer use at these items that make the world go ‘round.

Walk through the aisles of any major store and you will see a wealth of "soft" commodities. Coffee, cereal, orange juice, meat, bread made with wheat, and chocolate with cocoa and sugar. We are also surrounded by "hard" commodities, which are in our homes, automobiles, and in every piece of electronic equipment we use. The "hard" stuff includes industrial or precious metals, livestock, and the drivers of the energy market, crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and gasoline.

How Are Commodities Traded?

Now you're probably wondering how these daily essentials are priced, where they come from, and how they make their way onto supermarket shelves, or into the clothing we wear, or the cars we drive. Commodities futures markets around the world make this possible. A future is a financial contract to buy or sell a specified amount of a product or financial instrument at an agreed price on or before a given date in the future. For example, farmers can sell grain months before harvest in order to lock a price for their crop. The farmer is then assured of a steady price – despite weather risks. Therefore, the buyer assumes the price risk. Compensation for assuming that risk is given by setting the price below that of the expected spot price. The closer the time of delivery, the more the price of the futures contracts converges to the spot price. Since the futures price is initially set below the expected spot price, it gradually increases as the delivery date approaches, producing a return for the buyer.

Trading in futures originated in Japan during the 18th century and was used for the trading of rice and silk. In 1948, the United States followed with its first futures market, the Chicago Board of Trade. It was founded by 82 merchants to help agricultural producers and consumers manage the price risks of harvesting, marketing and processing crops each year. Many of the largest futures exchanges around the world have their roots in agriculture, and have developed into global marketplaces not only for agricultural goods, but also for currencies and financial instruments, such as bonds. Essentially, futures markets are major financial hubs, which provide an outlet for competition among buyers and sellers while managing price risks. "Trading decisions in futures markets are made through fundamental or technical analysis," says Tobias Merath, Credit Suisse Commodities and Equities Trading analyst.

Fundamental analysis includes all factors that influence supply and demand. For the physical commodities markets in producing countries, they include economic growth and outside forces that influence prices. Technical analysis is strictly based on inside market forces. It involves tracking past price patterns. Analysts focus on a variety of time frames, and trading decisions are based on past tendencies with the idea that these price patterns tend to repeat themselves.

Why Invest in Commodities Now?

The biggest catalyst for the commodities market is global economic growth. Currently, China and India are the main drivers of the boom that some financial experts have forecasted. "The integration of developing countries into the global economy presents a range of opportunities," says Giles Keating, Credit Suisse Head of Global Research. "Of the 6.5 billion people in the world, three-quarters are still outside the mainstream economy, but many are moving into the cities. To provide for them, a substantial investment is required in the provision of infrastructure, water, housing, offices, factories, sewage systems and transport." This production spurt translates into higher demand for all commodities.

Keep in mind that commodities are distinct from financial assets and react differently to changing economic conditions. "In a diversified portfolio, assets do not move in sync with each other, which limits the volatility of the portfolio and improves the consistency of returns over time," says Tobias Merath.

Be prepared

Before jumping in, it's important to note that investing in commodities is not as easy as investing in equities or bonds. Indices offer the simplest way of investing in commodities. "In contrast to the stocks of commodity companies, indices offer direct exposure to commodity futures and are a good way of profiting from the returns and the diversification potential that commodities offer." Now that you're armed with some of the basics, you can decide whether to add commodities to your portfolio with the help of your financial advisor.

source : Credit Suisse