This is the second of three articles I am posting on the suppression of gold. In the first article I showed that,
under mainstream economic theory, the suppression of the gold market is
not a conspiracy theory, but a logical necessity, a logical outcome. This second article will show how that suppression takes place. Those familiar with the gold market will likely find nothing new. The
third article will examine the implications of this suppression and
support the claim of the gold bugs, namely that physical gold will trade
at a premium over fiat gold or gold paper is also not a conspiracy
theory, but the logical outcome of the current paradigm.
How they do it: The concept
The popular notion, which central bankers
would love to destroy, is that gold is a good hedge against inflation.
In its simplest form, gold cannot be printed and, as its supply remains
anchored, its price should spike if the supply of fiat money increases.
The implicit math behind can be represented as follows:
Given a constant demand for money…
The equation above shows the price of
gold, in terms of a fiat currency (in this case, the US dollar) as a
function of the relative supplies of gold and the US dollar. In the case
of a fiat currency, its supply is the product of two factors: the
monetary base created by the respective central bank and the
corresponding credit multiplier. This multiplier reflects every single
mean by which the original base is expanded, through the banking system
and the shadow banking system.
If the equation above was indeed
representative of the state of affairs we’re in, there would be no room
for manipulation. The supply of gold, in terms of ounces available,
could be perhaps capped or confiscated, but not expanded. The price of
gold, therefore, could not be suppressed.
Now that we know what cannot be, let’s
understand what really is happening. To suppress the price of gold.
central bankers, simply, have invented a new currency: Fiat gold. The
math involved in it now is:
Given a constant demand for money…
As you can see from the second equation above, the
genius of central bankers was not to forbid gold but to morph it into
another fiat currency, by adding a credit multiplier to it.
With this, it only takes to proportionally expand this credit multiplier
faster than the numerator (of the equation) and the price of gold will
fall regardless of fundamentals. If they want to go one step further and
signal to the public that they can do this with complete impunity and
for as long as they please, they then proceed to expand the credit
multiplier predictably at specific times of the day (i.e. 8:20am ET).
How they do it: The details
Below, I will describe how the supply of
this new currency, fiat gold, is expanded. The motivation for this
expansion was already explained in the previous article. Below, I
present the steps included in the expansion of the supply of fiat gold.
In the next article, I will elaborate on the graph below, addressing its
implications and consequences. But today, let’s just look at the
mechanics:
The above graph shows the aggregate
balance sheets of the central banks, bullion banks and the gold market.
Bullion banks handle transactions in precious metals and, in this case,
in gold. As you can see, central banks hold gold as part of their
assets. However, they can swap their gold holdings for liquidity, for US
dollars. This swap is a mere exchange and is shown as step 1, in the
graph. The official explanation is that such swaps would have temporary
liquidity management purposes, because they remove US dollars from the
market (i.e. from the Bullion banks). At a later date, not shown in the
graph, the Bullion banks should return the gold to the central banks,
and receive US dollars back (including an interest). For this reason,
because the swap contract implies the return of the gold at a later
stage, central banks are allowed to continue showing the gold they
swapped in their balance sheets, as an asset.
Once the physical gold is in the hands
(i.e. balance sheet) of the Bullion banks, these banks can create loans
against it, supplying the market with fiat gold. This is shown in step
2. Gold is debited and Gold loans are credited. The ultimate amount of
gold loans outstanding is obviously a factor of the credit multiplier in
fiat gold. The higher the multiplier, the higher the supply of fiat
gold in the market and the pressure on the price to come down.
The anxiety around this issue is noticeable and the big questions are: How
far can central banks go with this manipulation? How long can it last?
Is there a mechanism by which the market should revert to fundamentals? I will devote the next letter to the last question.
With respect to the first ones, all I can say is that central banks can
go very, very far with the manipulation and can last longer than you or
I are willing to believe. Why? Because unlike the case of other
currencies and their respective credit multipliers, in fiat gold, the
players that demand gold loans are also the ones who transact in gold
(i.e. Bullion banks) and dominate the repo market to provide funding (to
those ultimately speculating with gold). They are all the same and only
a handful. They play a cooperative game among themselves and with the
central banks. The public that holds physical gold or the central
banks that accumulate physical gold but do not enter into swaps with the
Bullion banks cannot force a contraction in the credit multiplier. By
their actions (i.e. hoarding of physical gold), all they can do is to
force the rest of the central banks and Bullion banks involved to take a
higher risk in the expansion of the multiplier. But they cannot force a
rush for delivery. They are, by definition, outside of the system.
How can we protect ourselves from the manipulation?
One way to protect ourselves from the
manipulation described above is to simply trade the expansion of the
credit multiplier for fiat gold. At this point, I remind the reader
to read my disclaimer. (My comments are not intended to provide personal
investment advice and they do not take into account the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of
any specific person).
If the supply of fiat gold is a factor of
the monetary base in fiat gold and its credit multiplier, one can think
of proxies for these factors. In my view, the monetary base is
represented not only by the stock of physical gold outstanding, but also
by the stock that is to be mined: By the gold miners, collectively.
Fiat gold, on the other hand is represented by either futures or gold
certificates.
When the manipulation succeeds, the credit multiplier expands. In this case, if I am correct, it should be profitable to be long the promise to deliver gold and short the monetary base of fiat gold. When the manipulation is not successful
or a rush for delivery is triggered, the credit multiplier contracts.
Here, if I am correct again, it should be profitable to be short the promise to deliver gold and to be long the monetary base of fiat gold. There are many ways to express this trading thesis, but I’d rather leave these speculations to the reader.
Martin Sibileau
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